财经网讯 11月3日至4日，由杭州市人民政府主办的“2017杭州湾论坛”在杭州举行，主题为“新时代 新金融 新经济”。
法国前总理Dominique de Villepin（多米尼克·德维尔潘）在论坛上做主旨演讲，以下为发言实录：
法国前总理Dominique de Villepin（多米尼克·德维尔潘）
Hangzhou, 3rd November 2017
Breakthroughs in the New Finance and the New Economy
Ladies and gentlemen,
I am very glad to be here today, in Hangzhou, the capital of the Song dynasty that became over time a leading place of innovation and creativity! First of all, I’d like to extend my warm thanks to the organizers of this forum, in particular to WANG Boming and Caijing magazine for their long commitment to international debate about economy and finance.
It’s always a great pleasure to be in Hangzhou, a city known as bridge to Europe and to the world. Each time I’m visiting this town, I can’t help thinking of my friend, Zao Wùji, who often told me about his experience of Chinese-French painter between Hangzhou and Paris. Your city lies at the heart of global history and international dialogue. Once again, this forum is a sign of Hangzhou’s openness. Let me tell you how honoured I am to start this ceremony among respected leaders and renowned academics.
Such an event is of great value in a world where tensions are dramatically spreading. On the five continents, States, people and companies are subject to unpredictable troubles locally and abroad:
- It’s true in economy given the rising risk to international free trade;
- It’s true in politics as we can see today in the North Korean escalation and the Middle-Eastern crisis;
- It’s also true in ecology where climate change and resource depletion are threatening the future.
In such a tense situation, we cannot admit there is no alternative to political confrontation, economic isolation and environmental degradation.
After the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China, last month, and the main elections that recently took place in Europe, I do believe we have entered a new age of reforms and multilateral action: there is today a room for joint initiative aiming at changing globalization. It’s not only about treating the common challenges of peace and growth for today, it is about reviving in the long run the spirit of cooperation and innovation.
I / Because the world we’re living in is dominated by growing dangers
1) First of all, uncertainty is spreading in politics
- In recent times, Western elections have led to unexpected changes making uncertainty a new key principle of democracy:
• Look at the election of Donald TRUMP as President of the United States;
• Look at the British decision of leaving Europe despite the common conviction it would remain;
• Loot at France where nobody could have foreseen, a year ago, that Emmanuel MACRON would be able to access Presidency.
- The rise of populism is also heightening uncertainty all around the world:
• It is the case in the USA threatening the historic power balance through pulling out from the global stage:
o Because today, nobody can say how and if the US administration will keep playing a role in global affairs;
o In a few months, US credibility has been weakened by contradictions and political failures like the reform of the healthcare system;
• It is also the case in Europe divided between the progressive ideal of unity and the conservative pressures of nationalism:
o In Eastern Europe, countries like Poland and Hungary are stating opposition to European solidarity;
o But Western Europe is also concernedby the temptations of nationalism, protectionism and anti-liberalism: last month, German electionled to the entry of a far-right party into the Parliament;
• Major powers are also tempted to come back on the global stage to promote their cultural identity and political model:
o Russia has been increasingly active in world’s diplomacy over the last months with the aim of reviving national pride and territorial influence;
o Turkey has witnessed a dramatic reinforcement of central power striving to highlight the historic legacy of the Ottoman Empire;
o As an old civilization, China also became aware that the country had a huge responsibility in ensuring international stability.
2) Despite positive signs of recovery, global economy remainsimpacted by volatility
- First, there are some doubts about the future of international free-trade:
• Ambitioustrade agreements like the one between EU and Canada have been facing strong criticism due to the lack of transparency and legitimacy;
• At the same time, the current discussion about former deals like the NAFTA between the USA, the Canada and Mexico is harming confidence between trade partners. Today, free trade is suffering from distrust and division;
- Second, economy also remains under the risk of low inflation and increasing debts: there is a big question mark concerning the rates’ increase and the reforms of financial regulation:
• In the USA, we still ignore how interest rates will evolve under the new FED’s President while financial regulation should be dangerously reduced;
• In Europe, the monetary policy has proven to be effective in containing deflationist pressures: however, it’s still unsure if the European Central Bank will manage to softly monitor the end of the quantitative easing program;
• In China, economic stability is put at stake because of the level of debt: today, the corporate indebtedness is reaching more than 160 % of the GDP;
- Third, financialmarkets are still threatened by the vicious cycles of short term investment and inadequate allocations:
• There are traditional dangers like the commodity price volatility and financial asymmetries on regional markets: for example, we observea deep gap between the risk of tech bubble in China and the lack of venture capital to boost innovation in Europe;
• Technologic disruption is also creating a new type of risk:
o On international exchanges, market capitalizations are increasing as never before. In new Tech, the cap of the 20 biggest companies are worth 40 times their benefits, reminding us of the internet bubble in 2000;
o The expansion of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ripple is also raising significant issues like the lack of regulatory control.
3/ But more than uncertainty, insecurity is spreading globally
- All across the world, the risk of confrontation is expanding faster:
• Today, there are two central areas of risk:
o On the one side, North Korea has become the most dangerous ground of nuclear proliferation: the threat of a military intervention used by the USA could only worsen the situation and lead to international escalation: today, neighbour countries like Japan and South Korea are being put at risk as well as the rest of the world;
o One the other side, the Middle East has been the main theatre of war over the last decade. Not only the historic conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, but also the expansion of failing States like Iraq and Syria have damaged global security. The fast propagation of risk from the Middle-East has been tangible in the rise of jihadist terrorism worldwide.
• Tomorrow, pollutionand resource depletion will increase pressures at the borders, becoming a new cause of war: my conviction is that climate change will be a major concern of the time:
o Natural disasters could have growing impact as was the case in September with the hurricanes in the Atlantic;
o Natural resources like oil, gas and water will be ever more confronted with scarcity, creating both a risk of energy shortage and food insecurity.
- In each area of the world, the gap is deepening between elites and people:
• We live in societies torn apart between defenders of globalization and opponents of further openness:
o On the one hand, you have big metropoles like Beijing, Paris, New York, Berlin, Moscow and even here, Hangzhou, where prosperity is based on dynamic economy and developed markets;
o On the other hand, you have remote country side and left behind areas: people there have the feeling to be kept away from development and consider globalization as a cause of decline;
• Because globalization created both optimism and fears:
o It has provided countries like China with economic development, supporting growth through trade and foreign investment: only last year, Chinese exports worldwide reached around 2,000 billion dollars while the country invested around 100 billion in Europe and North America;
o At the same time, populism, nationalism and protectionism give evidence that globalization has created unfairness and imbalances.
II / In such a context, my conviction is that China and Europe can jointly build a momentum for shared prosperity and stability
1 / Today, we lack a global leadership and a long-term vision
- The meeting between Donald TRUMP and XI Jinping this week is a very good news. But we must admit that the new agenda of the United States has created an unprecedented vacuum in world’s affairs. American isolation is a big step backward in multilateral cooperation:
• It’s true in the US withdrawal from the Paris Climate agreement, putting forward global division on major issues like the environment: TRUMPS’s decision is both an individualistic and short term position as the US represent about 20 % of greenhouse gas globally issued;
• The US statement against the Nuclear agreement signed with Iran in July 2015 is also a counter-productive and even dangerous signal: there is a strong contradiction between US position against North Korean proliferation and the risk of dismantlement of the Iran nuclear deal;
• Economic and cultural isolation of the US also appears in the decision of leaving UNESCO and free trade agreements like the TPP.
- That’s why, we need a strong voice to take the lead of global development and stability in the long run:
• First, it has become necessary to defend and reform current institutions against the temptation of unilateral action:
o It means promoting the UN cooperation and committing to more representativeness and balance inside the United Nations: as Permanent Members of the Security Council, France and China share a common responsibility in boosting international dialogue;
o It also means keeping negotiations open in economic institutions like the WTO and striving to jointly solve financial crisis and low development through multilateral institutions like the IMF and the World Bank;
• Second, it is crucial to find new ways of global cooperation by designing new instruments adapted to the new world we have entered in:
o The AIIB, launched in Beijing two years ago, was a great step forward to finance sustainable development;
o The rise of the emerging countries in global governance is also decisive to improve equity and diversity in tackling common challenges alongside developed countries. That’s why I’d like to pay tribute to the decision made by the IMF last year to recognize the renminbi as a global currency.
2 / Today, both China and Europe are at a turning point
- Last month, the 19th Congress of the Communist Party initiated a new dynamic of China’s commitment inside the globalisation: this event was a major milestone in Chinese history, with a major impact on the world’s community:
• The new election of President XI put China under the sign of continuity, credibility and long term development. In the speech President XI delivered at the beginning of the Congress, he outlined a plan for the coming twenty years based on three objectives:
o Strengthening the unity of the Party;
o Reviving the pride of the nation;
o Committing the State to provide China with economic modernization;
• Now, the future of Chinese development will be driven by a new growth model:
o The priority is to accelerate the shift from an export-based model to a growth boosted by innovation: China did great progress in the digital field where leading companies like Tencent, Baidu and JD.com positively changed the landscape of Chinese economy as did progress in big data, biotech and artificial intelligence promoted in the frame of Made in China 2025;
o The “new normal” transition we are witnessing today also shows Chinese ability to land smoothly after three decades of double digit growth;
o But there are still some risks requiring China to drive fiscal and financial reforms to address economic dangers like shadow banking, unproductive SOE’s and overcapacities in sectors like cement and steel.
- In Europe, the major elections that recently occurred also opened a new era:
• It has opened the age of clarification to face hardships and division like the Brexit and the risk of Spanish fragmentation: there is a new momentum for a more united Europe managing successful and lasting negotiations;
• It has opened the age of stronger mobilization of leading States like France and Germany to renew hope in the European dream of solidarity;
• It has also opened the age re-foundation: further integration is now a necessity towards more economic and political coordination. The time has come for Europe to speak to the world with a clear and common voice.
3 / In this context, I do believe that EU-China cooperation can be the cornerstone of a new globalization
- ¬Europe and China are now at the forefront of multilateral cooperation:
• Over the last two years, they have been strong players of international dialogue in fighting against pollution and climate change:
o We saw that during the last General assembly of the UN in the Chinese support to the French project of a global pact for the environment;
o This common commitment to protecting nature was also tangible in Chinese and European measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions;
• Great progress has been also achieved in bilateral exchanges and mutual understanding:
o Academic dialogue between universities has continuously expanded over the last years: with more than 30,000 Chinese Students per year France has become one of the most popular countries for young Chinese abroad;
o Both countries share a common vision of politics and crisis-solving based on peaceful and diplomatic negotiation: in 2003, when I was Minister of Foreign Affairs, I remember the discussion between our two countries to avoid the military operation in Iraq. We were both convinced that the use of force would have devastating consequences for the whole Middle-East.
- Europe and China can also become the two main drivers of global economy:
• Trade is a motor of growth for both of us:
o Europe is the first commercial partner of China with a trade volume of around 600 billion dollars;
o China is the decisive market for European companies as well, especially for the car industry with leading brands like the French Peugeot or the German Volkswagen;
• Chinese investment in Europe also surged in the last years:
o Only in 2016, the European market welcomed roughly 46 billion dollars of Chinese foreign direct investment, in particular in sectors like infrastructures, luxury, tourism, sport and robotics;
o Of course, this evolution created some fears in Europe that considers adopting limitations on Chinese acquisitions;
• That’s why we need a common roadmap for the coming years:
o There is a necessity to define a new method tackling the issue of reciprocity as a pillar of economic cooperation;
o There is a need of exemplary initiatives on third-party markets;
o There is also an opportunity to create new tools of common governance, addressing economic regulation and stimulation.
III / Today, innovation and cooperation will be key to tackle the economic challenges of the century
1 / More than trade and investment, we need partnerships
- The growth of today is experiencing major changes driven by globalization and digitalization:
• Global value chains are ever more interdependent and integrated:
o It is the case in traditional sectors like the car industry where technical and financial interaction expand far beyond the borders: for example, a group like the French-Japanese alliance Renault-Nissan is associated with the Chinese automaker Dongfeng, being also shareholder of PSA;
o It is also the case in innovative sectors like the electric vehicle business: today, Tesla’s intention to produce electric cars in China reflects how Chinese policy in favour of clean cars globally impacts the market towards more interdependencies;
• In recent times, technologic disruption has been a crucial trend in global economy:
o China as well as the USA have created digital champions like the American GAFA and ecommerce leaders like Alibaba headquartered here, in Hangzhou. China developed an increasing number of major Tech Unicorns like Xiaomi in devices, Didi Chuxing in on-demand transportation and DJI in drones;
o Europe has also strong assets in the digital industry with big companies like Atos focusing on supercomputing and a series of Unicorns like BlaBlaCar.
- It has become necessary to build a global coordination able to address decisive issues likedigital regulation and innovation:
• We have to improve coordination in designing a global governance dealing with the cyberspace and digital economy:
o We need public initiatives like the international code of conduct on Internet suggested by China and Russia in 2011;
o We also need a UN multilateral framework to handle the neutrality of the cyberspace and address issues related to the artificial intelligence;
• Cross-border investment is also of great importance to boost research and development:
o Last year, the takeover of the German robotics maker Kuka by the Chinese Midea is a good example of globalized technology;
o Likewise, I’d like to praise the commitment of European companies like the Waste management leader Veolia in developing smart cities in China.
2 / I do believe the Belt and Road project is a new chance for globalization
- Unveiled in 2013 by President XI Jinping, the Belt and Road initiative is one of the most ambitious and inclusive projects of the current times:
• It’s first of all a political game changer serving a common objective: providing long term stability and shared development. It’s all about creating lasting ties between 60 countries from Asia to Europe and even from Africa and the Middle East through the Maritime Silk Road;
• In a context of low rates and weak investment, the Belt and Road project is also an economic game changer:
o It is a chance for infrastructure expansion and modernization as we witnessed in the construction of a freight rail network from Wuhan to Lyon, in France, and from Chengdu to Prague, in Czech Republic;
o It is also a chance for sustainable and profitable investment given the massive needs of financial resources: only in Asia, the needs are estimated around 26 trillion by 2030.
- My conviction is that strong synergy can be achieved in financing projects along the New Silk Road:
• There is a room for improving financial cooperation between massive instruments like the New Development Bank and the European Investment Bank: Junker’s investment package of 630 billion euros could help develop innovative projects like the digital Silk Road;
• I am also convinced the new 10 billion Euros fund of innovation the French government is creating could cooperate with the Silk Road Fund. Now, we have resources. We just need imagination and willingness to make the project work.
3 / But building economic stability also requires to create new common instruments
- The world needs new tools of financial stability:
• Europe must take the lessons from recent history. The 2008 collapse and the debt crisis in Greece made Europe aware of vulnerability:
o Good ideas are being pushed forwardlike the creation of a European Monetary Fund to get more credibility and independency;
o The creation of the Banking Union is also focused on improving regulation to protect European banks and citizens;
• Given the American announcements for less financial regulation, I really think China can play an exemplary role in putting financial stability as a concrete priority:
o Such a commitment appeared in a recent statement of the Central Bank’s governor against shadow banking and internet finance;
o I also think China and Europe can jointly support alternatives to the American Big Three through inventing a new credit rating based on more transparency, diversity and reliability.
• Monetary cooperation will also be key in building up a safer world:
o I have long been advocating for the creation of a G3 meeting, annually set up with the People’s Bank of China, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve;
o The G3 would aim at discussing the risk global currencies like the renminbi, the dollar and the euro can face in order to prevent and manage potential crises.
- We also need new tools of economic stimulation:
• In a world changing fast and massively, it is crucial to develop agile and scalable structures:
o Last year, the creation of the Sino-CEE Fund is a good example of a well-focused instrument: this one only backs Chinese investment in Central Europe in the frame of the 16 + 1 strategy;
o In Europe, France and Germany could create new funds focusing on projects in China through combining the French know-how and the German resources;
• Green innovation also requires new cooperative instruments:
o On the one hand, Europe has become a leader in green economy with France issuing in 2016 the first sovereign green bonds over 8 billion dollars;
o On the other hand, China is the largest driver of renewable energy, contributing last year to 40 % of the new green capacities globally;
o The Climate Summit hosted in Paris in next December will be a good opportunity to announce new financial projects, driven by Europe and China.
Ladies and gentlemen,
Over the last decades, global economy has gone through radical changes. The development of new technology has led to accelerate the time while reducing the distance. At the same time, the rise of digital economy has been the beginning of a new age of risks and opportunities.
Today, in a moment where globalization is increasingly challenged, there is a truth we cannot avoid considering:
Isolation does not bring growth.
Deregulation does not bring development.
Confrontation does not bring security.
However, cooperation and innovation both serve the aim of protecting the global common goods like peace, climate and development. It is the only path we have to step in now.